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Arab Strategy Forum 2014 discusses 'State of the World 2015'
Source: BI-ME , Author: Posted by BI-ME staff
Posted: Tue December 16, 2014 11:18 am

UAE. The seventh Arab Strategy Forum took place on Sunday with a session examining the state of the political landscape in 2015.

The forum which focuses on two themes - ‘State of the World’ and ‘State of the Arab World’ - was launched by a session led by Dr. Francis Fukuyama, the world renowned American political scientist.

Looking ahead at the state of the world in 2015, Dr. Fukuyama’s key projections were:
1) 2015 cannot be worse than 2014
2) Libya and Syria are not likely to resolve their problems in 2015
3) Fall of oil prices will have a destabilizing impact on most countries in the short term

2015 Cannot be Worse than 2014
On the political situation in 2015, Fukuyama said: “The power balance is shifting across the globe. The rise of China is not to be denied with the Chinese government seeking to reinforce its role. China is becoming a dominant power that the US and Japan do not want to acknowledge. China’s growing ambitions reflect its emerging power. The degree of nationalism could be alarming, even frightening.

Chinese military spending has surpassed the military spending of all European countries combined, china is investing heavily in its ballistic missiles system and nuclear submarines in additions to heavily investing in cyber war.

Russia on the other hand will be unable to achieve its goals given the complicated situations it has to face, especially after the Ukraine crisis. The efforts to recreate the USSR are driven by Russia’s nostalgia but Putin has little chance of achieving his goal of regaining power in the world. Putin used a new strategy in his war against the Ukraine; using “volunteers” gave him the right to deny responsibility. Sanctions led to decrease in the value of Ruble. This will definitely affect many major Russian companies and Putin has to face that sooner or later.

As for the MEA, I believe the ISIS issue has been overplayed by the US media and I don’t think ISIS represents a real threat since it has no international support of any sort. It has access to oil resources but is unable to sell it.”

Libya and Syria are Not Likely to Resolve Their Problems in 2015
On the geopolitical landscape in 2015, Fukuyama said: “I would be very surprised if we witness dramatic changes worldwide in 2015 across the geopolitical landscape. I also believe the crises in Syria and in Libya are likely to remain the same.
We are witnessing a democracy driven by the middle class that is seeking active political participation. This is what has powered the colored revolutions in latest years.”

He said: I’ll be surprised if we see dramatic changes or unexpected turns in 2015 and thinks that Syria and Libya will not be able get rid of their problems in the next year. The crises in the two countries will continue for a long time.

As for building democracies following the western model he reminded that americans see democracy as the existing of institutions and processes that constraint the power and authority of the government but forget that you need to create authority in the first place  to build the democracy. This is one of the main issues in the approach towards building democracies.

Fall of Oil Prices Will Have a Destabilizing Impact on Most Countries in the Short Term
“The fall of oil prices will have a global economic destabilizing impact. It will be difficult for many countries to recover from this crisis on the short term.”

 

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