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The emerging international order: Peter Middlebrook gives insights on core drivers of change
Source: BI-ME , Author: Posted by BI-ME staff
Posted: Mon September 17, 2012 3:56 pm

UAE. . Globalisation is here to stay - the demographics of humanity demand it and the systems currently in place allow for increasingly more open economies that drive the process.

This was one of the salient points made by eminent economist and well-known speaker Dr Peter Middlebrook at a lunch forum recently held by Capital Club Dubai, the region’s premier private business club and a member of the ENSHAA group of companies.

In his talk, titled The Emerging International Order – The Middle East and Investment Futures, Middlebrook examined the primary political and economic drivers of change and their impact on global and regional investment futures.

At the core of the discussion was the principle that understanding the core drivers of change is a pre-condition for profitable investment and the insights shared aimed to provide investors with the economic ammunition they would need to not only profit from, but in fact shape investment into the middle of this century and beyond.

Middlebrook identified six central propositions, what her referred to as ‘truth bearers’ – factors that are fundamental to understanding how the current world economy is operating.

The first of these is that, with the exponential increase in world population, globalisation has become unstoppable. Improvements in transportation as well as the massive uptake of communication technologies have resulted in a world where distance and borders as separating factors are becoming less and less important.

With this increased contact has come a rapid spread of free-market capitalism and a pervasive westernisation of government policy, business standards, and political systems. Add to that growing appreciation of choice and diversity and the result is decline in the nation-state.

He also observed that, with the shrinking of the once vast Soviet Union, the once widely varied economic ideology of the world is now converging and that monetary and fiscal policies have become nearly universal. Running hand in hand with this change in ideology, countries have in essence become businesses and are increasingly being run like businesses.

Another highly significant factor that he remarked on was the comparative decline of the dominance of the west and the increasing economic power of rest of the world. He also commented on the importance of taking the demographic and technological transitions that are in play into account observing that many of the decisions that are being made in the present have a significant momentum and that if this momentum is understood, certain predictions about future outcomes can be made.

Lastly he highlighted the crucial role played by our own thought process, our algorithms and software, remarking that the ability to think differently than your competitors can be come a true game changer.

About Dr Peter Middlebrook
CEO of Geopolicity Inc., an international management consultancy group specializing in economic intelligence, emerging markets and the stabilisation of fragile states, Dr Peter Middlebrook, has been an advisor to the Prime Minister’s offices in both Iraq and Afghanistan and is the Director of the forthcoming 2012 World Conflict Report.

He has lived in Africa, India, Central Asia and the Middle East for over 20 years has worked in more than 40 countries. He has been a political-economist with the World Bank (Vice President’s Office), the European Union, and the UK Government and has led economic analysis of multi billion dollar infrastructure investments, including the US State Department’s New Silk Road Strategy for Central Asia. He is also a regular contributor to Aljazeera and BBC and other media.



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