INTERNATIONAL. Boeing [NYSE: BA] projects a US$4.5 trillion market for 34,000 new airplanes over the next 20 years as the current world fleet doubles in size, according to the Boeing 2012 Current Market Outlook (CMO) released today.
The company’s annual forecast reflects the strength of the commercial aviation market.
“The world’s aviation market is broader, deeper and more diverse than we’ve ever seen it,” said Randy Tinseth, vice president of Marketing, Boeing Commercial Airplanes. “It has proven to be resilient even during some very challenging years and is driving production rate increases across the board.”
Airline traffic is forecasted to grow at a 5 percent annual rate over the next two decades, with cargo traffic projected to grow at an annual rate of 5.2 percent. The single-aisle market, served by Boeing’s Next-Generation 737 and the future 737 MAX, will continue its robust growth. Widebodies, such as Boeing’s 747-8, 777 and 787 Dreamliner, will account for almost US$2.5 trillion dollars worth of new airplane deliveries with 40 percent of the demand for these long-range airplanes coming from Asian airlines.
New Airplane Deliveries: 2012-2031
Airplane Type Total Deliveries Dollar Value
Single-aisle 23,240 US$2,030 billion
Twin-aisle 7,950 US$2,080 billion
Large 790 US$280 billion
Regional jets 2,020 US$80 billion
Robust growth in China, India and other emerging markets is a major factor in the increased deliveries over the next 20 years. Low cost carriers, with their ability to stimulate traffic with low fares, are growing faster than the market as a whole. There is also a strong demand to replace older, less fuel-efficient airplanes. Replacement accounts for 41 percent of new deliveries in the forecast.
The market for new airplanes is set to become more geographically balanced in the next two decades. Asia-Pacific, including China, will continue to lead the way in total airplane deliveries.
New Airplane Deliveries: 2012-2031
Asia Pacific 12,030
North America 7,290
Latin America 2,510
Middle East 2,370
World Total 34,000
“It’s incredible to see just how much air travel has changed since I took my first flight back in 1977,” said Tinseth. “It has become critical to business and something we do for pleasure, to connect with family and friends. As the market continues to grow, especially in emerging economies, air travel will become affordable to even more people.”
Freighter Fleet Forecast: 2012 to 2031
As the cargo market remains sluggish, Boeing has revised downward its projection for freighters over the next 20 years. Still, the world freighter fleet is projected to nearly double from 1,740 aircraft today to 3,200 at the end of the forecast period.
Additions to the fleet will include 940 new-production freighters (market value of US$250 billion) and 1,820 airplanes converted from passenger models. Large (more than 88.2 tons capacity / 80 tonnes) freighters will account for 680 new-build airplanes. Medium (44.1 to 88.2 tons / 40 to 80 tonnes) freighters will total 260 airplanes. No new standard-body freighters (49.6 tons / less than 45 tonnes) will be required, but there will be 1,120 standard-body conversions.
About the Boeing Current Market Outlook
Since the beginning of the jet age, Boeing has produced a long-term market outlook which was first shared publicly in the early 1960s. The CMO is the longest running complete worldwide jet forecast and is regarded as the most respected and comprehensive analysis of the aviation industry.
The report and a feature, which provides an interactive database of forecast numbers, can be found at www.boeing.com/cmo.