Physical gold buying 'good' in the Middle East, says ENBD Precious Metals Report
Source: Precious Metals, Emirates NBD , Author: Gerhard Schubert
Posted: Sat March 10, 2012 12:46 pm

UAE. Greece had another day in the limelight and it finally appears that all so-called "bailout" conditions have been met. This has been hailed as a great day for Greece but it still means the effective destruction of over 100 billion euros.
  
The release of the monthly US non-farm-payroll data showed that 227, 000 jobs have been created. This was slightly more than the expected average forecast of 216, 000. This number has been interpreted as positive for the US dollar. Nevertheless, the unemployment rate still stands at 8.3% overall.

Gold: US$1,712.00 – unchanged from last week

Unchanged may be factually correct but the week was quite busy. The market did test the downside quite strongly and recovered only towards the end of the week. A lot of selling from speculative longs has been absorbed, according to the latest CFTC Commitment of Traders Report (COTR).

One of the major reasons for the recovery, as cited by other commentators, has been that the market anticipated the outcome of the Greek restructuring actions.
 
Physical buying which has been and, it seems, is still missing in other parts of the world has been good in our region. The buying, which started strongly on 1st March, has continued throughout the week unabated and it shows that the very knowledgeable customer base has waited for this setback before engaging again.

Option volatilities midrates : Gold atm (at the money)
1 month 17.00 % unchanged
3 month 17.50 % unchanged
6 month 18.50 % down 1.00 %
1 year    20.25 % down 1.25 %
 
Premium 1kg Gold bars loco Dubai (DGD 995 fine) against loco London: US$ 0.50
EFP Spot Gold to April Comex: US$ 0.30
ETF: Holdings are at 2490 tons overall, an increase of just 2 tons
Support : 1,680 and 1,653  Resistance: 1,729 and 1,790

Silver: US$34.27 – down US$0.43 since last week

Silver is down on the week but has held well overall, taking into consideration the selling pressure which was evident earlier in the week. All white metals have done well with hindsight, but there had been moments when support levels were heavily breached and the outlook started to change to the negative.

Silver is holding levels above US$ 4 and that is certainly encouraging. Silver volatilities have given a little bit of ground back after the strong gains registered last week.
 
Option volatilities midrates : Silver atm (at the money)
1 month 33.00 % down 2.00 %
3 month 34.00 % down 1.50 %
6 month 35.50 % down 0.50 %
1 year    36.50 % down 0.75 %
 
EFP Spot Silver to May Comex: US $ 2.75 cents
ETF: Holdings are at 15235 tons, an increase of 15 tons
Support : 32.60 and 32.28 Resistance : 35.00 and 36.42
 
Platinum: US $ 1,682 – down US$ 12 since last week

 Platinum price movements during the week can easily be described as amazing. We traded down to the low US$1,600 levels and managed to end the week with a relatively insignificant loss of US$2.

The recovery of almost US$75 was impressive and the discount to gold moved early in the week back towards US$65 and finished at only US $ 30. All in all a good show and the support level at US$1,600 has been strengthened through this price action.
 
The investment side has been quiet in platinum over the course of the week, ETF holdings are unchanged and some speculative long positions have been reduced, according to the CFTC Commitment of Traders Report (COTR).
 
There has been a lot of talk about the reevaluation of the Chinese growth forecast, but I also want to point out that the Chinese inflation figures released are the lowest for at least twenty months. This could, but clearly does not have to, indicate that a soft landing of the Chinese economy is becoming more likely.

Option volatilities midrates : Platinum atm (at the money)
1 month 20.00 % up 0.25 %
3 month 22.50 % unchanged
6 month 24.00 % unchanged
1 year    25.50 % unchanged
 
EFP Spot Platinum loco Zurich to April NYMEX: US $ 1.60
ETF: Holdings are now at 48 tons.
Support : 1,600 and 1,562  Resistance : 1,700 and 1,724

Palladium: US$704 – down US$6 since last week

 Palladium withstood strong selling pressures early in the week and the support level at US$675 was severely tested.

The recovery to close the week above the US$700 level is important and might give some encouragement to the wider investment community about the stability and outlook for the remainder of the year. Palladium is widely tipped to be the main benefactor from an improving outlook for the global automotive industry.

Option volatilities midrates: Palladium atm (at the money)
1 month 25.00 % down 1.00 %
3 month 30.00 % down 0.50 %
6 month 32.50 % down 0.50 %
1 year    34.50 % down 0.50 %
 
EFP Spot Palladium loco Zurich to June NYMEX: US $ 1.25
ETF: Holdings are unchanged at 60 tons
Support: 675 and 648  Resistance: 730 and 768

Emirates NBD is proud to announce that it will be serving as the Title Sponsor of the upcoming Dubai Precious Metals Conference, together with Standard Chartered Bank. An initiative from the DMCC, and organized by Foretell Business Solutions, the Dubai Precious Metals Conference will take place from April 29 - 30, 2012. 

All the information about this important conference can be found on http://www.dpmc.ae/index.html

Note: This is the Precious Metals Report for March 10, 2012 by Gerhard Schubert, Head of Precious Metals at Emirates NBD.

About Emirates NBD
Emirates NBD (DFM: Emirates NBD) is a leading bank in the region. Emirates NBD have a leading retail banking franchise in the UAE, with 132 branches, 705 ATMs and SDMs. It is a major player in the UAE corporate banking arena, and has a strong Islamic banking, investment banking, private banking, asset management and brokerage operations.

The bank has operations in the UAE, the Kingdom of Saudi Arabia, Qatar, the United Kingdom and Jersey (Channel Islands), and representative offices in India, Iran and Singapore.

For more information about Emirates NBD, please visit www.emiratesnbd.com.

Disclaimer: This article is to inform your thinking, not lead it. Only you can decide the best place for your money, and any decision you make will put your money at risk. Information or data included here may have already been overtaken by events – and must be verified elsewhere – should you choose to act on it.

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