UAE. Maktari, the so-called 'Gold Hand', the international gold trader who some believe can control the price of gold, has issued his Gold Forecast for 2012. With continued tension in the Middle East and more financial turmoil looming, Maktari says this is another year for the record books.
He expects an average gold price of US$1,780 in 2012 and "possibly have the chance to [rise to] US$1,900 plus yet again," Maktari wrote in an emailed commentary.
"No correction is on the cards for 2012, but trading will be more cautious and optimistic as compared to 2011," the gold trader reckons.
"With the US downgrade in 2011 and more recently France, my only assumption at this point is to expect more downgrades in the coming months," he writes, adding that future rating cuts to AA+ will not affect markets, with the exception of a UK downgrade.
Admitting he failed to see the recent pull back, he says "I, amongst others expected gold to end 2011 at a record high before a major pull back or a temporary correction would happen."
I was expecting some sort of QE from the US in the latter stages of 2011 to support my gold prediction, but nothing really came, he explains.
"No one was prepared for what the markets dished out," however the sharp rise that occurred in 2011 leading to an all-time record price above US$1,900 ”was something I had never seen before".
"With political unrest and financial turmoil hitting us from both Europe and the Middle East, it was virtually impossible to correctly point out the direction of gold and how the year will end," he argues.
What will be the direction for gold this year?
2012 started with some early positive signs, but "I still expect some sort of QE from the Fed at some point this year," he says.
"America is back, Obama said in his State of the Union speech this week. A great political speech to prepare for the upcoming presidential election, nothing more," Maktari reckons.
As to the UK and Europe, Maktari sees 2012 as a very challenging year for Europe, with further unemployment and a strong chance of a long recession in the UK.
"[Bank of England Governor] Mervin King signals more stimulus. The question is will it be more damaging than good?" Maktari asks.
We should see 2012 with an average gold price of US$1,780 and possibly have the chance to reach US$1,900 plus yet again. No correction is on the cards for 2012 but trading will be more cautious and optimistic as compared to 2011, he predicts.
"I do expect pull-backs when gold rises sharply on profit taking but this will only be temporary."
Reiterating gold's safety status, the international trader writes: "Remember, volatility is caused by uncertainty. With uncertainty in the Euro region and in the US, gold will still be your best friend".
"I'm still very bullish on gold and I am willing to wait it out in order to see the US$2,000 level," Maktari concludes.
About Mamoon Maktari
Mamoon Maktari is Head of Gold Trading at Middle East Gold Trading in the UAE.
In a 2009 interview, asked what makes him so sure about his predictions and how he managed to bee so right thus far, Maktari said: “I study the markets and follow the trends. I know what is happening behind the scenes and I know how the markets will react in such times. It doesn’t take a rocket scientist to understand which direction gold will go in through certain times of the week or month. It’s about constantly studying the gold market and understanding its movements”.
"Those who know me, will all say that I have been saying things about the gold price for years and I am usually on target about my opinions. At the end of the day, that’s what they are, my opinions,"