INTERNATIONAL. Insurance and security experts speaking at a summit in Dubai this week, said that piracy attacks in the Gulf of Aden and other key shipping lanes are continuing to increase in frequency and in the level of violence, as they counter hardened defences of ship owners.

Speaking at the UAE Advanced Defence & Security Technology Summit, held at the Grand Hyatt, Vice Admiral Jacques Mazars of French group Marine Nationale, said that shipping routes are today the blood vessels of globalisation. There are currently 50,000 ships involved in global maritime traffic and 62% of the world’s oil is transported by sea., including 20 million barrels per day that passes through a small number of strategically important straits.

“Even when the crisis is not in front of us, we have to plan for what can affect us in two years, three years, or even ten years,” he said.

The Gulf of Aden attacks are increasing and in 2008 there were more cases than in the last three years, he added. There is a concentration of natural resources in the Indian Ocean and simple fisherman can become real pirates with very few resources. “They have the capability to completely block what the peace is bringing for all of us,” he said.

Whereas in 2006 there were just five successful pirate attacks globally and ten aborted attempts, this figure leapt to 43 with 165 aborted attempts in 2008. So far there have been five successful attacks and 36 aborted attempts in 2009.

Mazars said that drug traffikers were one of the big winners from this state of lawlessness on the seas. With the drug routes in North and South America now blocked, they have found others in West Africa, which is the source of more and more problems.

“Therefore we can see this is an international affair. We have to stop it, not at 200 miles or 2,000 miles, but at 10,000 miles.”

At the conference, Commander Ranjit B Rai, former Director of Indian Naval Operations and Vice President of the Indian Maritime Foundation, gave a perspective on the very ambitious expansion of the Indian Navy.

Rai said that the Indian Navy and Coastguard came to much higher importance following the Mumbai bombing of 26/11.

He said that India, with its growing energy industry, its long 7,500 kilometre coastline, its strategic position on the trade routes from the Middle East to China as well as India, and the vast area of the Indian Ocean, had many of the same threats as the Gulf.

“Sea control and sea denial, that is what determines a blue water navy,” said Commander Rai. He pointed to greater tensions coming from the sea, such as the transborder movements of people, the threat of oil spills and pollution, which can have a big impact on the economy.

The dramatic growth of India and China is important for the world. There is a need for energy security and this has caused both countries to turn their sights from the land to the sea. He said that whereas the Indian Navy and its missile technology had traditionally relied on Russian collaboration, India is now turning to the West. The country today has 40 naval ships on order and another nine coastguard ships.

Brigadier James Baxter, Managing Director of the British international security firm Aegis, said that Somali pirates have developed in reaction to instability in that country. Although pirates tend to avoid publicity, he said there is a new wave of young 16 to 17 year old pirates who become celebrities back in their home village.

He said that energy security will become increasingly important as the world emerges from this current recession. And in this coming period, there are three waterways that will become fragile for world trade: the Straits of Hormuz (the most vulnerable), Babel el Mander (currently a major concern for the 3.5 million bpd of oil it carries to Europe and the US) and the Malacca Straits (which has seen a rise in copycat-type piracy attacks).

“Piracy is an ancient trade, with a long complicated history,” said Baxter. “But in the current phase there is an increased linkage to organized crime and the violence can be extreme. Piracy and terrorism can blur, and it will not be lost on Al Qaeda, how successful the pirates have been, and how quickly they can take a supertanker within 10 or 15 minutes.”

He said that most of piracy today is of a non-state origin, but this is an area to watch and nations, notably the US have especially realized the importance of tackling it.

In the Gulf of Aden there have been talks about setting a secure sea channel, although there has been no result on this yet and shipping companies are only able to make use of certain secure waypoints where they can check in with the US Navy. But speaking frankly, “it is a mess,” said Baxter.

As a risk advisor to Lloyds of London and with its several offices in Afghanistan, Iraq, Bahrain, the US and the UK, Aegis says it is well placed to serve a coordinating role between the different governments and maritime agencies involved in the problem.

“Our view, expressed to the insurance market, is that the naval presence has up to now only had an indirect influence. We have seen the reaction of many owners of these vessels, who have taken steps to harden non-lethal defence against boarding.  But this has provoked a response from the pirates who have become more sophisticated in their methods,” said Baxter, “for example with the use of mother ships and decoys.”

He also predicted an upturn in the levels of violence used by the pirates, and this could potentially be an escalation of the issue politically. “There have been talks on better coordination [between insurers, owners and all the maritime agencies] but in fact nothing has been achieved,” said Baxter.

Al Qaeda inspired attacks on shipping are another phenomenon we can expect to see increase. The Gulf states after all cover an area of high strategic value with naval assets, oil and gas facilities, city centres and tourist sites all in close proximity. The Lloyds insurance market still sets as an exclusion zone (the area of highest risk) all of the Saudi ports as well as all the ports of the Red Sea, Qatar and Bahrain.

Al Qaeda fatwas on oil and gas installations are well-known and a new focus on the Gulf region could lead to one of the groups attempting something spectacular. As one delegate said: “Iran is a potential flashpoint, even if it also relies on the Straits of Hormuz as being economically very important. But there is a great rise in tension.”

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