INTERNATIONAL. Investor Jim Rogers is bullish on oil as crude prices collapsed to four-year lows and the world is running out of known oil reserves.
Rogers said he is the world's worst market timer and a horrible short-term trader, but a sharp sell-off in oil prices suggested a bottom.
Rogers, who remains bullish on commodities, estimated known world oil reserves at today's consumption rate are about 16 years, which indicates crude prices will again trend higher.
"Oil reserves are dropping 7% a year and these drop in reserves will cause serious supply problems in the near future."
"We're going to see US$200 oil at some point, it may be by 2013. It's a sad fact but the world is running out of known oil. Oil will make a big comeback," he said.
Peak oil has been the subject of debate for many years and has largely been ignored by industry optimists but has continually worried many industry experts.
Matthew Simmons, Chairman of Simmons & Co International has long argued that global oil production has already peaked and Middle East reserves estimates are overstated. Simmons has also predicted crude will exceed US$200 a barrel or more.
Simmons is the author of 2005's 'Twilight in the Desert: The Coming Saudi Oil Shock and the World Economy', which argues that global oil production has already peaked and Middle East reserves estimates are overstated.
Critics of Simmons' peak-oil assertions say it's impossible to know when petroleum production has peaked, given uncertainties estimating global reserves, and point out that previous theories pegging a specific date for peak oil output have been wrong.