INTERNATIONAL. Silver, down 35% this year, will outperform gold as investors turn to the metal as a hedge against inflation, investor Jim Rogers said.
“Silver will do better than gold,” Rogers, chairman of Singapore-based Rogers Holdings, said on Monday in an interview in New York. “It’s been beaten down horribly. If you put a gun to my head and said you have to buy one, I would buy silver rather than gold.”
Gold may drop as central banks and the International Monetary Fund (IMF) sell the metal to raise cash, said Rogers, who correctly predicted in April 2006 that gold would reach US$1,000 an ounce. The IMF in May ratified a plan that included proposals to sell 403.3 metric tons of gold to reduce a budget deficit.
“The IMF has gigantic amounts of gold,” said Rogers, a cofounder with George Soros of the Quantum Hedge Fund. “Maybe gold is going to go down for a while. If gold does go down, I’m going to buy more.”
The IMF’s gold-sale plan needs legislative approval from member countries including the US before it can be carried out. The lender is the third-largest holder of gold reserves, with a total of 3,217 metric tons valued at about US$90 billion. The US has the most, followed by Germany.
Silver futures for December delivery rose 2 cents to US$9.75 an ounce on the Comex division of the New York Mercantile Exchange. From July 31 through October 31, the metal dropped 45%, more than twice as much as gold, which fell 22%.
The recent decline in raw-material prices is a short-term correction and doesn’t signal the end of the commodity bull market, Rogers said. The Reuters/Jefferies CRB index has plunged 44 percent from a record in July, including a 22% drop last month.
The Rogers International Commodity Index Total Return has plummeted 47% from a record in July, including a 25% slide last month. The index fell as much as 2% on Monday.
Supply constraints and inflationary pressures will boost agricultural, energy and metal prices, he said.
“All the commodities are going to go higher,” Rogers said. “Everything’s been killed and they’re due for a rally.”